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East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/3
Public Advisory TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E PUBLIC ADVISORY 3 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA 400AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 100.0W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.61 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 9 KT...10 MPH...17 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------------------- At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at 13.3N 100.1W, or about 310 miles (495 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1002 mb (hPa; 29.61 inHg), and the system was moving north-northwest at 9 knots (10 mph; 17 km/h). Atmospheric conditions are favorable for further intensification, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm by daybreak, and possibly into a major hurricane this weekend. Interests in the tourist resorts of the Mexican Coast are advised to monitor the progress of the tropical depression. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 100am CDT. $$ Forecaster YE Discussion TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E PUBLIC ADVISORY 3 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA 400AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 Even though the depression has not changed much in organization, possibly due to moderate wind shear as hinted by the 0z SHIPS run, satellite classifications have increased since the previous package. A 0545z Dvorak Technique-based estimate from SAB yielded a CI, DT, PT, and MET of T2.5/35 knts. Furthermore, this estimate was confirmed by a TAFB classification of T2.5/35 knts. Even though CMISS –Wisconsin estimates crica 07z via the 8.1.4 version of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) yielded 2.4/34 knts, older, less-advanced versions of ADT maintained by SSD support a slightly stronger tropical cyclone, with a current intensity value at 0545z of 2.8, or 41 knts and a pressure of 1001 mbar. More importantly, a 0330z ASCAt pass found peak 27 knt winds. Due to the unimpressive structure of the system, especially along the eastern side, ASCAT will be given the benefit of the doubt and assume that the winds missed were not significantly stronger. For this reason, the intensity is being held at 30 knots, and gale-force winds, if any, are likely restricted to the northwest quadrant. The complex track forecast is not as complex anymore, at least in the short term. The model guidance has become into better agreement on keeping this cyclone somewhat offshore the Mexican Coast, with the most pronounced shift occurring in the 0z GFS run, which is similar in track from yesterday’s 12z ECMWF run. In addition, the 0z HWRF has also shifted west, and closely follows the new GFS run. The aging 0z GFDL model run, which has an eastward bias with these kinds of systems, brings future Carlos into the Bay of Campeche, an outlier. The 0z ECMWF has also shifted a bit west, but remains on the left side of the guidance envelope, as it shows a weaker ridge off the Baja California Peninsula than the previous run. The new track has again been shifted north and west, but lies on the left hand of the model guidance, and is a blend of the ECMWF and the top-preforming 0z run of the TVCN consensus. With the computer models in better agreement on the track of this tropical cyclone, the intensity forecast is not as challenging. However, uncertainties remain. Water vapor imagery indicated that outflow from all 4 channels were expanding, which is an indication that shear is less than what the SHIPS is indicating, much like Hurricanes Odile and Marie last season. Since then, while the outflow has become somewhat spikey, the cloud presentation has not degraded slightly, which an indication there may still be some shear affecting it. Furthermore, the system lacks the very cold cloud tops often seen in future major hurricanes in the East Pacific. For this reason, steadily, but not quite rapid intensification is shown. Although not explicitly shown below, it is not of out the question that the depression will briefly reach Category 3 intensity if the system can developed an inner core structure conducive for intensification. After day 3, some uncertainty increases despite a now coherent forecast track. The SHIPS, HWRF, GFSI (interpolated GFS), and LGEM all show a fairly steady state cyclone at that time, possibly due to the presence of dry air. The SHIPS shows declining relatively humidity values after day 4, and systems off the coast of Jalisco have a tendency to rapidly dissipate near the Mexican Coast, such as Hurricane Andres in 2009 and Hurricane Beatriz in 2011. Given that and it’s possible proximity to the Mexican coast, there is no justification for showing further strengthening after day 3 at this time. Interests in the Mexican Coast are encouraged to closely monitor the progress of the system. Over the next several days, in part due to the storm’s expected slow motion, up to 6-12 inches of rain could fall in the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Colima, Michoacán, and Jalisco, with higher totals possible over the higher mountains of the aforementioned states. Up to 10-1 waves are also possible along coastal seas. Due to the fairly high uncertainty in both track and intensity, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially in longer time frames. Initial 11/0900 13.3N 100.1W 30 knts 12 hr 11/1800 14.4N 100.5W 40 knts 24 hr 12/0600 14.9N 100.0W 45 knts 36 hr 12/1800 15.3N 99.7W 55 knts 48 hr 13/0600 15.8N 99.8W 65 knts 72 hr 14/0600 16.5N 100.8W 85 knts 96 hr 15/0600 17.9N 103.6W 85 knts 120 hr 16/0600 19.3N 105.3W 85 knts $$ Forecaster YE